Brackets are due Thursday so let’s talk some final strategy and then I’ll tell you my Final Four, eventual winner and where I think my moorings may have come loose.

Here are four things you may want to try:
1) Simply choose the higher seed. This works early because while the upsets make headlines, numerically they are rare. Where you get in trouble is the Final Four where getting all four number one seeds to show up is rarer than sushi.

A corollary to the seed strategy is after the first round look for games where the seed spread is more than two. For example if Butler (5) beats ODU (12) and plays Maryland (4), pick ‘em. But if ODU gets the upset, I like their chances less in the second game because the seed spread would be eight against Maryland. Not everybody can be a George Mason. Two exceptions to this rule would be a.) anyone you believe can make the Sweet 16 for a low seed. This year I have picked two: Creighton and VCU (Please forgive me, oh, god of all that is Duke); and b.) If two low seeds win in upsets and face each other.

2) I use geography as a strategy most often in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games. It’s not an end all, but I believe it is a factor. One of the reason I like Texas A&M this year is that the regional finals for the South region is in San Antonio. Home game! It can’t hurt A&M’s chances. I used geography maybe a dozen times when filling out this years brackets.

3) Conferences can come into play. You have to do some research, but look who won games in interconference match-ups. For example, if Duke survives VCU and plays Pitt, look at ACC/Big East games. Might give you some insight.

4) Mascot madness might work, too. A co-worker finished very high in an office pool last year choosing the mascot most likely to win. For example, a Gator vs. a Terrapin, always goes to the Gator. Maybe it only worked last year when Florida (Gators) went all the way. Anyway, it is something.

So here’s my final four and what passes for rationale: Florida — playing well, defending champs, lots of tourney experience, good coach, fairly easy road to Atlanta. UCLA — defend well, experienced with good guards, better than the team that was runner up last year. Georgetown — playing great ball at end of the season, good coach, defend well, riding wave of confidence because millions have them in their bracket, good enough to beat UNC or Texas. Texas A&M —ferocious defenders, great at crunch time with Acie Law IV, playing regional in backyard, might be overlooked, has chops to beat Ohio State.

I have Florida over UCLA and Georgetown over A&M and Florida to win it all.

Final thought: Remember, it’s all just one man’s opinion. When it comes to March Madness, the knowledge level between Dickie V, the talking suits at ESPN or your Aunt Millie who doesn’t know a Hoya from a Zag is slight. Come to think of it, I don’t think I know a Hoya from a Zag.